Most of the time, hurricanes follow the Gulf Stream. The warm, swift-moving Gulf Stream snakes between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, then loops around Florida and follows the eastern coast of the U.S. It starts to bend away from the coast near North Carolina.

Water around Long Island is about 30 degrees colder than in the Gulf Stream. When a hurricane reaches this area its winds tend to slow down and the hurricane calms, mellowing into a tropical storm.

There is, however, another fact to consider. Based on data taken from Montauk Point between 1886 and 2000, a hurricane passes close to that area (within 75 miles) an average of every 9.6 years. The last hurricane to get that close was 1991's Hurricane Bob, a Category Two, whose western side skimmed the eastern tip of Long Island. But, since the winds of a hurricane are strongest in its northeast quadrant, to us Bob's winds were a Category One in strength.
Nonetheless, Bob passed by almost 13 years ago. According to the law of averages, this area is overdue for another Category One hurricane.

A Category One rotates with winds that are between 74 and 95 miles per hour and is not expected to do any major damage to structures or cause dangerous flooding. However, some damage could occur to unanchored mobile homes, piers, beaches and vegetation and flooding on south shore coastal roads could occur.

The last hurricane to pass directly over Long Island was Hurricane Gloria, also a Category One, nearly 18 years ago in September of 1985. At the time, many people perceived Gloria to be stronger than it was because most people had not experienced a strong hurricane.
People on Long Island are generally not prepared for even a Category One hurricane, which increases the likelihood of damage. An even stronger hurricane, while causing severe damage in areas that get them often, would hit us harder.

The worst hurricane to cross Long Island in the 20th century was the Hurricane of 1938, a Category Three known as the "Long Island Express." The winds were measured at more than 120 miles per hour, with gusts up to 180 mph, and the storm surge caused record high tides that swept away thousands of homes. The hurricane caused more than 600 deaths and today's equivalent of billions of dollars in damages.

If a Category Three struck Long Island today, the results could be far more devastating because the population and development here have boomed since 1938. According to the data taken for this area, a Category Three occurs, on average, every 75 years. Thus, we could be seeing one in 10 years.